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Housing Bubble: Buyers Have `Faith’ Home Prices Outpace Stock Market

Japan, the housing bubble would have collapsed along with the collapse of the stock bubble in the years 2000-2002. Instead, the collapse of the stock bubble helped to feed the housing bubble. The loss of faith in the stock market caused millions of people to turn to investments in housing as a safe alternative to the stock market.

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In places like Palo Alto and Mountain View, where median home prices have doubled – at a minimum – over the past 10 years, the median incomes of the families who live there have gone up by.

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After a brief slowdown, the housing market quickly stabilized and a number of homebuilders have outperformed. The current stock price is basically a call option on the company avoiding bankruptcy.

But 6% will likely be the pain threshold, in my estimates. It will block a considerable number of potential buyers from buying at current prices. Home prices would have to fall first. If the maximum a household can afford is a mortgage payment of $1,720 a month, they can finance $320,000 over 30 years with a 5% fixed rate mortgage.

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Historically, first-time homebuyers have accounted for 35 percent of single-family housing market and 45 percent of the purchase mortgage market. "The rapid growth in the first-time homebuyer market that began in 2015 continued into the second quarter.

The housing market up to 2020 is predicted to have home prices continually increase around most of the country. Most markets are at a low risk for a downturn at the present time, and will likely experience an annual growth of 2 to 6%. In certain areas there is valid concern that the rising home prices will outpace incomes.

Historically, first-time homebuyers have accounted for 35 percent of single-family housing market and 45 percent of the purchase mortgage market. "The rapid growth in the first-time homebuyer market that began in 2015 continued into the second quarter.

Meanwhile home prices have increased 17 percent in the two years ending in December 2014, outpacing wage growth by a 13:1 ratio. Among the 184 metro areas analyzed, the average wage growth over the two years ending Q2 2014 was 3.7 percent while the average home price appreciation in the two years ending in December 2014 was 13.4 percent.

First-Time Homebuyer Demand Continues to Outpace Housing and Mortgage Market, Driving Home Pricing Appreciation Genworth Q2 2017 report shows homebuilders are increasing efforts to meet demand in.